OPEN SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. The number 23 moves north into Palm Beach County, from Riviera Beach and West Palm Beach south to Delray Beach and Boca Raton, and the new district draws on the old 22nd and 20th, none of the old 23rd's territory, so there is no before and after to compare. On the new lines it voted Harris +13.7 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Jared Moskowitz (D) has held this seat since 2023 and is not running; the district was redrawn in May 2026.
New districtD+13.7New districtThe number now names a new district, drawn from none of the old district's territory. On the new lines the 2024 presidential vote was D+13.7.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 96.2¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 96.2¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 14.01-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upD+4.9 in 2024.MarketD 96.2¢FundraisingD 14.01 to 12024 resultD+4.9
MarketD 96.2¢2024D+4.9FundraisingD 14.01 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Frankel.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+4.9
Jared Moskowitz (D)
52.5% to 47.5% · 2024 general election · a different district with this numberPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. The number 23 moves north into Palm Beach County, from Riviera Beach and West Palm Beach south to Delray Beach and Boca Raton, and the new district draws on the old 22nd and 20th, none of the old 23rd's territory, so there is no before and after to compare. On the new lines it voted Harris +13.7 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Joe Kaufman (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.