California 36th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 37-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 98.9¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+37.4 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 356.63-to-1 in receipts.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+37.4

Ted W. Lieu (D)

68.7 — 31.3 · 2024 general election

def. Melissa Toomim (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 356.63 to 1

Ted Lieu$1.83M

Houston Brignano$5.1K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.