Nebraska 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

No market prices this seat. The most recent general-election poll puts the Republican ahead by 7 points — a 20-point Republican hold in 2024.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Lean RR+7 — Zenith Polls, May 14.Prior result · Likely RR+20.21 in 2024.

Signal clarityLow — no market priceas of 2026-05-14

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

—

No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+7

Zenith Polls ↗ B+ May 8 - 11 · n=371 LV R+7 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+20.21

Mike Flood (R)

60.1 — 39.9 · 2024 general election

def. Carol Blood (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

4 to 1

Christopher Backemeyer$592.2K

Mike Flood$2.37M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.