Vermont At-Large District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 33-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.8¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Safe DD+38 — UNH, Jul 22.Market · Safe DD 99.8¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+32.5 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

Polling moved 7 points toward the Democrat over 21 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 99.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+38

UNH ↗ C Jul 15 - 20 · n=954 LV D+38 INDEPENDENT

UNH ↗ C Jun 18 - 23 · n=887 LV D+31 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+32.5

Becca Balint (D)

62.29 — 29.79 · 2024 general election

def. Mark Coester, Republican (LIBERTARIAN). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Becca Balint$956.3K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-22 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.