FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 33-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.4¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 99.4¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Safe DD+26.5 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 21).Prior result · Safe DD+32.5 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 16.41-to-1 in receipts.MarketD 99.4¢PollsD+26.52024 resultD+32.5FundraisingD 16.41 to 1
MarketD 99.4¢PollsD+26.52024D+32.5FundraisingD 16.41 to 1
Market and polls both favor Balint.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above