Connecticut Governor — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 13-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 99.9¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 99.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Safe DD+20.2 — GreatBlue Research, Aug 3.Prior result · Likely DD+12.92 in 2022.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

Polling moved 7 points toward the Democrat over 33 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 99.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+20.2

GreatBlue Research ↗ C Jul 21 - 26, 26 · n=1,000 RV D+20.2 INDEPENDENT

Sacred Heart University / WFSB / CT Insider ↗ July 21–26, 2026 · n=1,000 RV D+20 INDEPENDENT

UNH ↗ C Jun 18 - 23, 26 · n=821 LV D+13 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+12.92

Lamont, Ned (D)

55.97 — 43.05 · 2022 general election

def. Stefanowski, Bob (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

9.1 to 1

Ned Lamont$9.94M

Ryan Fazio$1.09M

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 08-04 · STATE FILING

Total receipts this cycle.