FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 13-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 96.1¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 96.1¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+13.7 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 21).Prior result · Likely DD+12.92 in 2022.MarketD 96.1¢PollsD+13.72022 resultD+12.9
MarketD 96.1¢PollsD+13.72022D+12.9
Market and polls both favor Lamont.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts, as filed through each campaign's latest filing, June 30 to August 4, 2026.What these filings sayJoint gubernatorial ticket committee, figures cover the ticket, not the individual.Joint gubernatorial ticket committee, figures cover the ticket, not the individual; multiple committees on file, this record covers the named committee only.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.