Texas 37th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 51-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 98.6¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Safe DD+50.64 in 2024.Market · Safe DD 98.6¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 9.95-to-1 in receipts.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98.6¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+50.64

Lloyd Doggett (D)

74.22 — 23.58 · 2024 general election

def. Jenny Garcia Sharon (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 9.95 to 1

Greg Casar$1.17M

Lauren Peña$117.9K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.