Kentucky 3rd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 24-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.2¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 99.2¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+23.9 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 42.91-to-1 in receipts.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 99.2¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+23.9

Morgan McGarvey (D)

61.9 — 38 · 2024 general election

def. Mike Craven (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 42.91 to 1

Morgan McGarvey$1.63M

Maria Teresa Rodriguez$38.1K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.