Nebraska 3rd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Macey Budke (I), Mark Cohen (I) and David Else (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 61-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 99.8¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 32.26-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 99.8¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+60.84 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 99.8¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+60.84
Adrian Smith (R)
80.42 — 19.58 · 2024 general election
def. Daniel Ebers (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 32.26 to 1
Becky Stille$55.1K
Adrian Smith$1.78M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.