DEFENDED SEATSafe R to Likely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +17.7 to Trump +20.7 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Tom McClintock (R) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialR+17.7→R+20.7Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+17.7) and the new (R+20.7). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 92.7¢ Republican.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely RR 92.7¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+23.6 in 2024.MarketR 92.7¢2024 resultR+23.6
MarketR 92.7¢2024R+23.6
No public polls. The market favors McClintock.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+23.6
Tom McClintock (R)
61.8% to 38.2% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +17.7 to Trump +20.7 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Michael J. "Mike" Barkley (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; McClintock leads 2.5 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.