Henry Cuellar
TX-28What the Signal reads
Cuellar is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Cuellar at 89¢ against Tijerina's 12¢, up 7¢ since August 3. The polling average has Cuellar ahead by 5.3 points, and Cuellar leads 1.6 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Henry Cuellar by name.
197,708 traded · 104,175 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Cuellar v Tijerina
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas 28th DistrictAverage of 2 pollsters, June 23 to July 30.
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Henry Cuellar.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+7.3 → R+10.4
Texas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. The Laredo and Rio Grande Valley district takes in territory from neighboring districts. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +7.3 to Trump +10.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.