Massachusetts U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

THE MATCHUP PRIMARY SEP 01 DECIDES THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE

PRIMARY · SEP 01 · DEMOCRATIC KXSENATEMAD-26 ↗

Decides which Democrat appears on the November ballot.

EVEN Ed Markey 98¢ Seth Moulton 2¢

Kalshi primary market · checked 6:36 PM

NOV 3 · THE GENERAL ELECTION SENATEMA-26 ↗

John Deaton holds the Republican nomination. The party market prices the seat, not the people — it carries whichever Democrat wins on September 1, 2026.

DJD

DEMOCRAT 98.4¢

KALSHI PARTY MARKET · CHECKED 08/27Democratic nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 1, 2026John DeatonRepublican · Nominee

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 33-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 98.4¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98.4¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+33.1 in 2020.Polling · Likely DD+13 — UNH, Aug 27.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98.4¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+13

UNH ↗ C Aug 20 - 24 · n=881 LV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP D+13 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+33.1

Edward J. Markey (D)

66.2 — 33.1 · 2020 general election

def. Kevin O’Connor (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

—

John Deaton$1.50M

Democratic nominee determined Sep 1, 2026.

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.