New York 18th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 14-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 95.9¢ today.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 95.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+14 — GSG, Aug 14.Prior result · Likely DD+14.34 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 52.66-to-1 in receipts.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 95.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+14

GSG ↗ B- Jul 23 - 26 · n=500 LV D+14 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+14.34

Patrick Ryan (D)

57.13 — 42.79 · 2024 general election

def. Alison Esposito (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 52.66 to 1

Patrick Ryan$4.72M

Jackie Mary Auringer$89.7K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.