FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 14-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 96.5¢ today.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 96.5¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+15.3 (average of 2 pollsters, Jul 26).Prior result · Likely DD+14.34 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 52.66-to-1 in receipts.MarketD 96.5¢PollsD+15.32024 resultD+14.3FundraisingD 52.66 to 1
MarketD 96.5¢PollsD+15.32024D+14.3FundraisingD 52.66 to 1
Market and polls both favor Ryan.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
D+15.3
GSG ↗B-Jul 23 to 26 · n=500 LVD+14Ryan sponsorD+14 · Ryan sponsor · counts as D+12 at half weight
PPP ↗BOct 29 to 30 · n=561 votersD+17D-leaning firm
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+14.3
Patrick Ryan (D)
57.1% to 42.8% · 2024 general election
def. Alison Esposito (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.