FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 32-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 110.98-to-1 in receipts.Polling · Safe RR+22 (Rutgers University, Sep 7).Prior result · Safe RR+31.98 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 98¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.FundraisingR 110.98 to 1PollsR+222024 resultR+32.0MarketR 98¢
MarketR 98¢PollsR+222024R+32.0FundraisingR 110.98 to 1
Market and polls both favor Downing.
The market moved 6¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above