Montana 2nd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Patrick McCracken (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 32-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 94.3¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 110.98-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 94.3¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+31.98 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 94.3¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+31.98
Troy Downing (R)
65.99 — 34.01 · 2024 general election
def. John B. Driscoll (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 110.98 to 1
Brian J. Miller$19.2K
Troy Downing$2.13M
PULLED 08-22 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.