FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 13 points in 2024 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 54¢.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Toss-upD 54¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upD+0.5 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 28).Prior result · Likely RR+12.78 in 2024.MarketD 54¢PollsD+0.52024 resultR+12.8
MarketD 54¢PollsD+0.52024R+12.8
Market and polls both favor Taylor.
The market moved 7¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 5 points toward the Democrat over 11 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
DCCC ↗B-Sep 15 to 17 · n=519 LVR+1DCCC sponsorR+1 · DCCC sponsor · counts as R+3 at half weight
Public Policy Polling (D) ↗August 8 to 9, 2025 · n=541 RVR+1House Majority PAC sponsorR+1 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+3 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+12.8
Robert J. Wittman (R)
56.3% to 43.5% · 2024 general election
def. Leslie C. Mehta (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 15, 2026; Wittman leads 1.8 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.