Virginia 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 13 points in 2024 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 57¢.

Toss-up

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Toss-upD 57¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upR+1 — Public Policy Polling (D), Aug 9.Prior result · Likely RR+12.78 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 5¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 57¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+1

Public Policy Polling (D) ↗ August 8–9, 2025 · n=541 RV R+1 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+12.78

Robert J. Wittman (R)

56.31 — 43.53 · 2024 general election

def. Leslie C. Mehta (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Robert J. Wittman$4.05M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.