Arizona Governor
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Risa Lombardo (G) and Teri Ann Hourihan (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — decided by less than a point in 2022, priced at 88¢ today.
Likely D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Likely DD+16 — HighGround, Aug 24.Market · Likely DD 88¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+0.6 in 2022.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
Polling moved 8 points toward the Democrat over 17 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 88¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+16
Quantus ↗ B-
Aug 14 - 17, 26 · n=780 LV
D+5.9
INDEPENDENT
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+0.6
Katie Hobbs (D)
50.3 — 49.7 · 2022 general election
def. Kari Lake (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
—
Katie Hobbs$175.8K
Andy Biggs$1.20M
PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-21 · STATE FILING
Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.