FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: decided by less than a point in 2022, priced at 85¢ today.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 85¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Lean DD+5.3 (average of 3 pollsters, Oct 8).Prior result · Toss-upD+0.6 in 2022.MarketD 85¢PollsD+5.32022 resultD+0.6
MarketD 85¢PollsD+5.32022D+0.6
Market and polls both favor Hobbs.
The market moved 4¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above