Donald G. Davis

NC-1

INCUMBENT Toss-up to Lean D Favored

What the Signal reads

Lean D

Davis is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Davis at 67¢ against Buckhout's 35¢, up 9¢ since July 31. The polling average has Davis ahead by 5.7 points, and Davis leads 1.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Davis · Democratic contract

67.0¢

▲ 9.0¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Donald G. Davis by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 67¢ · low 55¢Oct 12

Donald G. DavisDemocratic · incumbent

67.0¢

Laurie BuckhoutRepublican

35.0¢

121,556 traded · 82,751 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Davis v Buckhout

Metric by metric

Davis

Buckhout

67.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

35.0¢

$4.29M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$3.77M

$3.57M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.83M

42%

Latest pollco/efficient, R-leaning firm · Oct 8

43%

U.S. Representativesince 2023

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

North Carolina 1st District

Polling average

D+5.7

Average of 3 pollsters, October 4 to October 8.

Prior result

D+1.7

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Donald G. Davis.

Fundraising

1.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+3.1 → R+11.5

North Carolina's legislature redrew two districts in October 2025 (SB 249) by moving counties between the 1st and 3rd districts. The 1st takes in Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde and Pamlico counties and gives Greene, Lenoir, Wayne and Wilson counties to the 3rd. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +3.1 to Trump +11.5 in the 2024 presidential vote.

The record this is read from ↗