OPEN SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedAlabama is going back to the map its legislature passed in 2023. A court-drawn map was used in 2024; on June 2, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court paused a lower-court order blocking the 2023 map, so the state's own map is in use this cycle. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +55.3 to Trump +36 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Barry Moore (R) has held this seat since 2025 and is not running; the district was redrawn in June 2026.
PresidentialR+55.3→R+36Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+55.3) and the new (R+36). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in June 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 98.1¢ Republican.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 13.52-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 98.1¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+56.9 in 2024.FundraisingR 13.52 to 1MarketR 98.1¢2024 resultR+56.9
MarketR 98.1¢2024R+56.9FundraisingR 13.52 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Carl.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+56.9
Barry Moore (R)
78.4% to 21.5% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesAlabama is going back to the map its legislature passed in 2023. A court-drawn map was used in 2024; on June 2, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court paused a lower-court order blocking the 2023 map, so the state's own map is in use this cycle. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +55.3 to Trump +36 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Tom Holmes (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.