Florida 21st District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Alexander Cooke (I) and David Fabrikant (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 24-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 94.3¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Likely RR+23.65 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 94.3¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 94.3¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+23.65
Brian Mast (R)
61.82 — 38.17 · 2024 general election
def. Thomas Witkop (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
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PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 07-29 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.