Vicente Gonzalez
TX-34What the Signal reads
Gonzalez is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Gonzalez at 85¢ against Flores's 17¢, up 8¢ since July 31. The polling average has Gonzalez ahead by 1.5 points, and Gonzalez leads 2.6 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Vicente Gonzalez by name.
67,005 traded · 36,869 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Gonzalez v Flores
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas 34th DistrictAverage of 3 pollsters, April 29 to August 22.
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Vicente Gonzalez.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+4.4 → R+10.1
Texas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It adds coastal territory north of the Rio Grande Valley that used to be in the 27th. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +4.4 to Trump +10.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.