New Jersey 4th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 35-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 17.23-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Safe RR+34.8 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 98¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 98¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+34.8

Christopher H. Smith (R)

67.4 — 32.6 · 2024 general election

def. Matthew Jenkins (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 17.23 to 1

Rachel Peace$34.4K

Christopher H. Smith$592.0K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.