Greg Abbott
TXWhat the Signal reads
Lean R
Abbott is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Abbott at 81¢ against Hinojosa's 20¢, down 1¢ since July 31. The polling average has Abbott ahead by 2.5 points, and Abbott leads 1.5 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Abbott · Republican contract
81.0¢
▼ 1.0¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Greg Abbott by name.
2,061,777 traded · 1,337,500 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Abbott v Hinojosa
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas GovernorPolling average
R+2.5
Average of 11 pollsters, September 13 to October 5.
Prior result
R+10.9
2022 general election, won by Greg Abbott.
Fundraising
1.5 to 1
Raised, through September 24.