Oregon U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 18-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 97.9¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 97.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+17.59 in 2020.Fundraising · Lean DD 37.6-to-1 in receipts.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 97.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+17.59

Merkley, Jeff (D)

56.91 — 39.32 · 2020 general election

def. Perkins, Joe Rae (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 37.6 to 1

Jeff Merkley$4.54M

David Brock Smith$120.8K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.