Hallie Shoffner
ARWhat the Signal reads
Likely R
Shoffner is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Shoffner at 6.5¢ against Cotton's 94.6¢, up 1.9¢ since July 31. The polling average has Cotton ahead by 7.9 points, and Cotton leads 2.7 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Shoffner · Democratic contract
6.5¢
▲ 1.9¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Hallie Shoffner by name.
215,555 traded · 169,116 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Shoffner v Cotton
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Arkansas U.S. SenatePolling average
R+7.9
Average of 3 pollsters, August 12 to October 4.
Prior result
Cotton +33.1
Cotton won 66.5% to 33.5% over Ricky Dale Harrington, Jr. (Libertarian) (2020).
Fundraising
2.7 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.