Gregory F. Murphy
NC-3What the Signal reads
Murphy is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Murphy at 84¢ against Smith's 17¢, down 4¢ since August 3. The polling average has Murphy ahead by 5 points, and Murphy leads 10.5 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Gregory F. Murphy by name.
4,176 traded · 2,924 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Murphy v Smith
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
North Carolina 3rd DistrictTulchin Research, House Majority PAC sponsor, August 2.
Murphy won 77.4% to 22.6% over Gheorghe Cormos (Libertarian) (2024).
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+21.9 → R+13.6
North Carolina's legislature redrew two districts in October 2025 (SB 249) by moving counties between the 1st and 3rd districts. The 3rd takes in Greene, Lenoir, Wayne and Wilson counties and gives Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde and Pamlico counties to the 1st. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +21.9 to Trump +13.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.