Texas 36th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 39-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 94.2¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely RR 94.2¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+38.72 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 94.2¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+38.72

Brian Babin (R)

69.36 — 30.64 · 2024 general election

def. Dayna Steele (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Rhonda Hart$0

Brian Babin$1.01M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 03-31 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.