Chris Jones · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Jones is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Jones at 17¢ against Hill's 84¢, up 3¢ since August 3. The polling average has Jones ahead by 1 point, and Hill leads 3.7 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Jones · Democratic contract

17.0¢

▲ 3.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Chris Jones by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 20¢ · low 14¢Oct 12

Chris JonesDemocratic

17.0¢

J. French HillRepublican · incumbent

84.0¢

51,573 traded · 47,208 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Jones v Hill

Metric by metric

Jones

Hill

17.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

84.0¢

$1.17M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$4.42M

$191.4K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$2.97M

46%

Latest poll2040 Strat. Group, D sponsor · May 8

43%

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2015

The 2026 race

Arkansas 2nd District

Latest poll

D+1

2040 Strat. Group, D sponsor, May 8.

Prior result

R+17.9

2024 general election, won by J. French Hill.

Fundraising

3.7 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.