FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 58-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 97.3¢ today.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe RR 97.3¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+58.25 in 2022.MarketR 97.3¢2022 resultR+58.3
MarketR 97.3¢2022R+58.3
No polls of this matchup. The market favors Barlow.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Closing balance at August 18, 2026, not money raised; Casner reports $0, so there is no ratio.What these filings sayThis filing reports closing cash on hand; receipts and expenditures are not on file for this period.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.