Elections Intelligence

Scott Perry

PA-10U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Lean D Competitive underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Lean D

Perry is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Perry at 22¢ against Stelson's 80¢, up 4¢ since August 3. The polling average has Stelson ahead by 3 points, and Stelson leads 1.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Perry · Republican contract
22.0¢
▲ 4.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Scott Perry by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 28¢ · low 18¢Oct 12
Scott PerryRepublican · incumbent
22.0¢
Janelle StelsonDemocratic
80.0¢

24,870 traded · 13,736 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Perry v Stelson

Metric by metric
Perry
Stelson
22.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
80.0¢
$5.19M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$6.36M
$2.85M
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$4.48M
44%
Latest pollFranklin & Marshall · Sep 20
47%
U.S. Representativesince 2013
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Pennsylvania 10th District
Polling average
D+3

Average of 3 pollsters, November 19 to September 20.

Prior result
R+1.2

2024 general election, won by Scott Perry.

Fundraising
1.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.