James Talarico · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Lean D

Talarico is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Talarico at 64¢ against Paxton's 37¢, up 17¢ since July 31. The polling average has Talarico ahead by 2.9 points, and Talarico leads 7.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Talarico · Democratic contract

64.0¢

▲ 17.0¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on James Talarico by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 68¢ · low 46¢Oct 12

James TalaricoDemocratic

64.0¢

Ken PaxtonRepublican

37.0¢

Ted BrownLibertarian

no contract on this candidate in the market

25,916,243 traded · 18,137,797 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Talarico v Paxton

Metric by metric

Talarico

Paxton

64.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

37.0¢

$68.56M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$9.25M

$21.55M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.76M

47%

Latest pollTrafalgar Group · Oct 8

44%

Member of the Texas House of Representatives, representing District 50

Holds now

Attorney General of Texas

The 2026 race

Texas U.S. Senate

Polling average

D+2.9

Average of 14 pollsters, September 13 to October 8.

Prior result

R+9.6

2020 general election, won by John Cornyn.

Fundraising

7.4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.