Illinois Attorney General — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 11-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 98.8¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98.8¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+10.9 in 2022.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+10.9

Kwame Raoul (D)

54.35 — 43.45 · 2022 general election

def. Thomas G. DeVore (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Kwame Raoul$1.72M

Bob Fioretti$28.3K

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 06-30 · STATE FILING

Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.