Florida 27th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 21-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 82¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upR+3 — Blueprint Polling, Mar 12.Market · Likely RR 82¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+20.8 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 82¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+3

Blueprint Polling ↗ B+ Mar 6 - 8 · n=451 LV R+3 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+20.8

Maria Elvira Salazar (R)

60.4 — 39.6 · 2024 general election

def. Lucia Baez-Geller (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

—

Maria Elvira Salazar$2.00M

PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 07-29 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.