Florida 27th District

DEFENDED SEATLean R to Toss-upREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +14.7 to Trump +14.6 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗

Maria Elvira Salazar (R) has held this seat since 2021 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in May 2026.

PresidentialR+14.7→R+14.6Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+14.7) and the new (R+14.6). Same ballots, new map.

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 64¢ Republican.

Toss-up

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Polling · Toss-upR+2.5 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 13).Market · Toss-upR 64¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+20.8 in 2024.

Market and polls both favor Salazar.

The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days. As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 64¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

R+2.5

Tulchin Research ↗ B- Sep 8 to 13 · n=600 LV R+1 House Majority PAC sponsor R+1 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+3 at half weight

Bendixen & Amandi ↗ C+ Aug 25 to 30 · n=600 LV EVEN Rodriguez sponsor EVEN · Rodriguez sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight

Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

R+20.8

Maria Elvira Salazar (R)

60.4% to 39.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +14.7 to Trump +14.6 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗

def. Lucia Baez-Geller (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026 · thru Jul 29

Eliott Rodriguez$661.2K ↗$325.1K cash

Maria Elvira Salazar$2.00M ↗$2.26M cash

Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 29, 2026; Salazar leads 3 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.