Ken Paxton
TXWhat the Signal reads
Lean D
Paxton is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Paxton at 37¢ against Talarico's 64¢, down 17¢ since July 31. The polling average has Talarico ahead by 2.9 points, and Talarico leads 7.4 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Paxton · Republican contract
37.0¢
▼ 17.0¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Ken Paxton by name.
25,916,243 traded · 18,137,797 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Paxton v Talarico
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas U.S. SenatePolling average
D+2.9
Average of 14 pollsters, September 13 to October 8.
Prior result
R+9.6
2020 general election, won by John Cornyn.
Fundraising
7.4 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.