Iowa 2nd District
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: Dave Bushaw (I) and Rick Stewart (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 16-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 60¢ today.
Toss-up
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Toss-upD+1 — GSG, Aug 6.Market · Toss-upR 60¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+15.56 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 60¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+1
GSG ↗ B-
Jul 27 - Aug 1
D+1
D SPONSOR
PPP ↗ B
Apr 13 - 14 · n=675 RV
D+3
D SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+15.56
Ashley Hinson (R)
57.08 — 41.52 · 2024 general election
def. Sarah Corkery (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.2 to 1
Lindsay James$1.63M
Joe Mitchell$1.94M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.