Arkansas U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 33-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 93.4¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upD+3 — Hendrix College, Aug 20.Market · Likely RR 93.4¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+33.06 in 2020.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

Polling moved 6.4 points toward the Democrat over 14 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 93.4¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+3

Hendrix College ↗ D+ Aug 11 - 12 · n=1,127 LV D+3 INDEPENDENT

Hendrix College ↗ D+ Aug 11 - 12 · n=1,127 LV D+3.4 INDEPENDENT

J.L. Partners ↗ B- Aug 14 - 18 · n=803 LV R+15.8 R SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+33.06

Cotton, Tom (R)

66.53 — 33.47 · 2020 general election

def. Harrington, Ricky Dale, Jr. (LIB). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

2.7 to 1

Hallie Shoffner$2.27M

Tom Cotton$6.23M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.