California 41st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 3 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 96.5¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 937.85-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upR+3.38 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 96.5¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+3.38

Ken Calvert (R)

51.69 — 48.31 · 2024 general election

def. Will Rollins (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 937.85 to 1

Linda Sánchez$1.60M

Mitch Clemmons$1.7K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.