OPEN SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Only the number carries over. The new 41st is a new district in southeast Los Angeles County and part of Orange County, drawn from parts of the old 38th and 42nd, and includes none of the old 41st's territory, so there is no before and after to compare. On the new lines it voted Harris +14.2 in the 2024 presidential vote. Ken Calvert, who held the old 41st, is running in the new 40th.Source ↗
Ken Calvert (R) has held this seat since 2023 and is not running; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
New districtD+14.2New districtThe number now names a new district, drawn from none of the old district's territory. On the new lines the 2024 presidential vote was D+14.2.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 97.5¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 97.5¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Fundraising · Lean DD 937.85-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upR+3.38 in 2024.MarketD 97.5¢FundraisingD 937.85 to 12024 resultR+3.4
MarketD 97.5¢2024R+3.4FundraisingD 937.85 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Sánchez.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+3.4
Ken Calvert (R)
51.7% to 48.3% · 2024 general election · a different district with this numberPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Only the number carries over. The new 41st is a new district in southeast Los Angeles County and part of Orange County, drawn from parts of the old 38th and 42nd, and includes none of the old 41st's territory, so there is no before and after to compare. On the new lines it voted Harris +14.2 in the 2024 presidential vote. Ken Calvert, who held the old 41st, is running in the new 40th.Source ↗
def. Will Rollins (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.