OPEN SEATLikely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. The district number moves from south Houston to eastern Harris County and Liberty County. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +44.1 to Trump +19.8 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Al Green (D) has held this seat since 2005 and is not running; the district was redrawn in September 2025.
PresidentialD+44.1→R+19.8Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+44.1) and the new (R+19.8). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in September 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 82¢ Republican.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Safe DUnopposed in 2024.Polling · Lean RR+8 (PPP (adjusted), Sep 19).Fundraising · Lean RR 37.58-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 82¢: traders' price for a Republican win, a flip from Democratic.2024 resultD unopposedPollsR+8FundraisingR 37.58 to 1MarketR 82¢
MarketR 82¢PollsR+82024D unopposedFundraisingR 37.58 to 1
Market and polls both favor Mealer.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+8
PPP ↗BSep 18 to 19R+6Gutierrez sponsorR+6 · Gutierrez sponsor · counts as R+8 at half weight
The latest poll on file. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D unopposed
Al Green (D)
2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. The district number moves from south Houston to eastern Harris County and Liberty County. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +44.1 to Trump +19.8 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. (). Margin verified against retrieved official results.