FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 2-point Republican gain in 2022, priced at 56¢ today.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upD+2.5 (Cygnal (adjusted), Sep 11).Prior result · Toss-upR+1.71 in 2022.Market · Toss-upR 56¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.PollsD+2.52022 resultR+1.7MarketR 56¢
MarketR 56¢PollsD+2.52022R+1.7
Market favors Bird, but polls favor Willems.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
D+2.5
Cygnal ↗Sep 9 to Sep 11 · n=500 LVD+0.5Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation sponsorD+0.5 · Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation sponsor · counts as D+2.5 at half weight
The latest poll on file. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 1
Cygnal ↗June 16 to 19, 2026 · n=600 LVR+4.6Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation sponsorR+4.6 · Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation sponsor · counts as R+2.6 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+1.7
Brenna Bird (R)
50.8% to 49.1% · 2022 general election
def. Tom Miller (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total contributions, as filed through July 14, 2026.What these filings sayThe headline figure is Schedule A: Cash Contributions Total, this period (DR-2 summary page) as published by Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board; it is not identical to total receipts as the FEC defines them.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.