Michele Tafoya
MNWhat the Signal reads
Toss-up
Tafoya is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Toss-up. The market has Tafoya at 13¢ against Flanagan's 88¢, up 4.2¢ since July 31. The polling average has Flanagan ahead by 2.9 points, and Flanagan leads 1.2 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Tafoya · Republican contract
13.0¢
▲ 4.2¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Michele Tafoya by name.
1,843,092 traded · 1,457,409 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Tafoya v Flanagan
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Minnesota U.S. SenatePolling average
D+2.9
Average of 7 pollsters, September 14 to October 7.
Prior result
D+5.2
2020 general election, won by Tina Smith.
Fundraising
1.2 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.