Idaho 1st District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Sarah Zabel (I) and Brendan Gomez (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 46-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Safe RR+21 — Change Research, Aug 14.Market · Safe RR 98¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+45.55 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
Polling moved 11 points toward the Republican over 22 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 98¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+21
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+45.55
Russ Fulcher (R)
71 — 25.45 · 2024 general election
def. Kaylee Peterson (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
3.7 to 1
Kaylee Peterson$181.0K
Russ Fulcher$662.6K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.