FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 46-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 98.7¢ today.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Likely RR+16.5 (average of 2 pollsters, Jul 30).Market · Safe RR 98.7¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+45.55 in 2024.PollsR+16.5MarketR 98.7¢2024 resultR+45.5
MarketR 98.7¢PollsR+16.52024R+45.5
Market and polls both favor Fulcher.
The market moved 5¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 11 points toward the Republican over 16 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+16.5
Change Research ↗C-Jul 28 to 30R+21Stegner sponsorR+21 · Stegner sponsor · counts as R+23 at half weight
SurveyUSA ↗Jul 7 to 14 · n=480 LVR+10Candidate sponsorR+10 · Candidate sponsor · counts as R+10 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+45.5
Russ Fulcher (R)
71.0% to 25.4% · 2024 general election
def. Kaylee Peterson (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Fulcher leads 3.6 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.