FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 13-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 97.1¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 97.1¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Safe DD+20 (average of 2 pollsters, Oct 1).Prior result · Likely DD+12.5 in 2022.MarketD 97.1¢PollsD+202022 resultD+12.5
MarketD 97.1¢PollsD+202022D+12.5
Market and polls both favor Pritzker.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts, as filed through June 30, 2026.What these filings sayJoint gubernatorial ticket committee, figures cover the ticket, not the individual.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.