Nebraska 2nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 2 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 87¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+2 — Wedgewood Polls, Jul 14.Prior result · Toss-upR+1.85 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 87¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+2

Wedgewood Polls ↗ Jul 9 - 12 · n=350 LV D+2 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+1.85

Don Bacon (R)

50.93 — 49.07 · 2024 general election

def. Tony Vargas (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.3 to 1

Denise Powell$2.67M

Brinker Harding$2.03M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.