Elections Intelligence

Max L. Miller

OH-7U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Lean D Competitive underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Lean D

Miller is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Miller at 19¢ against Poindexter's 81¢, down 18¢ since August 3. The polling average has Poindexter ahead by 10 points, and Miller leads 3.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Miller · Republican contract
19.0¢
▼ 18.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Max L. Miller by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 37¢ · low 18¢Oct 12
Max L. MillerRepublican · incumbent
19.0¢
Brian PoindexterDemocratic
81.0¢

200,106 traded · 94,650 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Miller v Poindexter

Metric by metric
Miller
Poindexter
19.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
81.0¢
$2.14M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$603.2K
$1.38M
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$312.3K
35%
Latest pollBedrock Polling, D sponsor · Aug 10
43%
U.S. Representativesince 2023
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Ohio 7th District
Polling average
D+10

Average of 3 pollsters, August 6 to August 10.

Prior result
R+15.0

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Max L. Miller.

Fundraising
3.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+10.6 → R+11.1

Ohio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +10.6 to Trump +11.1 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.