North Carolina 11th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Travis Groo (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
A seat that went Republican by 14 points in 2024 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 64¢.
Toss-up
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Toss-upD 64¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+1 — Impact Research, Jan 6.Prior result · Likely RR+13.54 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 64¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+1
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+13.54
Chuck Edwards (R)
56.77 — 43.23 · 2024 general election
def. Caleb Rudow (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
3.2 to 1
Jamie Ager$3.05M
Chuck Edwards$940.0K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.