Chuck Edwards (R) has held this seat since 2023 and is not on the November ballot. Before that: Madison Cawthorn (R). Jennifer Capps Balkcom was selected by the district Republican executive committee in August 2026.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 14 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Lean DD 78¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upD+1 (Public Policy Polling (adjusted), Sep 11).Prior result · Likely RR+13.54 in 2024.MarketD 78¢PollsD+12024 resultR+13.5
MarketD 78¢PollsD+12024R+13.5
Market and polls both favor Ager.
The market moved 9¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above