New York 21st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 24-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 75¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean RR 75¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Polling · Likely RR+12.2 — J.L. Partners, Aug 19.Prior result · Likely RR+23.96 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 5¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 16.2 points toward the Republican over 11 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 75¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+12.2

J.L. Partners ↗ B- Aug 15 - 17 · n=500 LV R+12.2 R SPONSOR

SurveyUSA ↗ A+ Aug 4 - 8 · n=800 A D+4.1 INDEPENDENT

SurveyUSA ↗ August 4–8, 2026 · n=612 LV D+4 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+23.96

Elise M. Stefanik (R)

61.95 — 37.99 · 2024 general election

def. Paula Collins (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.7 to 1

Blake Gendebien$5.46M

Anthony Constantino$9.46M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.