FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 24-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 74¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+1 (average of 3 pollsters, Oct 6).Market · Lean RR 74¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+23.96 in 2024.PollsR+1MarketR 74¢2024 resultR+24.0
MarketR 74¢PollsR+12024R+24.0
Market and polls both favor Constantino.
The market moved 9¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 7 points toward the Democrat over 34 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
PPP ↗BSep 9 to 10 · n=557 RVR+5The Bench sponsorR+5 · The Bench sponsor · counts as R+7 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 5
Impact Research ↗BAug 30 to Sep 2 · n=500 LVR+3Gendebien sponsorR+3 · Gendebien sponsor · counts as R+5 at half weight
J.L. Partners ↗B-Aug 15 to 17 · n=500 LVR+12.2R sponsorR+12.2 · R sponsor · counts as R+10.2 at half weight
SurveyUSA ↗A+Aug 4 to 8 · n=800 adultsD+4.1Independent
SurveyUSA ↗August 4 to 8, 2026 · n=612 LVD+4Independent
Impact Research ↗BMay 26 to 31 · n=500 LVR+1Gendebien sponsorR+1 · Gendebien sponsor · counts as R+3 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+24.0
Elise M. Stefanik (R)
62.0% to 38.0% · 2024 general election
def. Paula Collins (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Constantino leads 1.7 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.