Texas Attorney General — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 10-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 89¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Lean RR+5 — University of Texas/Texas Politics Project, Aug 13.Prior result · Lean RR+9.74 in 2022.Market · Likely RR 89¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

Polling moved 4 points toward the Republican over 27 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 89¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+5

University of Texas/Texas Politics Project ↗ 2026-08-05 to 2026-08-13 · n=1,200 RV R+5 PARTISAN

Texas Southern University ↗ 2026-07-27 to 2026-07-30 · n=1,200 LV R+5 PARTISAN

Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School/ReconMR ↗ 2026-07-27 to 2026-07-30 · n=619 LV R+2 PARTISAN

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+9.74

Ken Paxton (R)

53.42 — 43.68 · 2022 general election

def. Rochelle Garza (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Nathan Johnson$290.6K

Mayes Middleton$117.5K

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 06-30 · STATE FILING

Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.