FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 10-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 73¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+3 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 22).Market · Lean RR 73¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Lean RR+9.74 in 2022.PollsR+3MarketR 73¢2022 resultR+9.7
MarketR 73¢PollsR+32022R+9.7
Market and polls both favor Middleton.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above