FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 13-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 91.9¢ today.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 91.9¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+13.45 in 2024.Polling · Lean DD+8.5 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 13).MarketD 91.9¢2024 resultD+13.4PollsD+8.5
MarketD 91.9¢PollsD+8.52024D+13.4
Market and polls both favor Little.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
D+8.5
Impact Research ↗BSep 9 to 13 · n=500 LVD+12Little sponsorD+12 · Little sponsor · counts as D+10 at half weight
Harper Polling ↗B+Jul 18 to 21 · n=415 LVD+5R sponsorD+5 · R sponsor · counts as D+7 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+13.4
Angie Craig (D)
55.5% to 42.1% · 2024 general election
def. Joe Teirab (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 22, 2026; Little leads 1.8 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.