Minnesota 2nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 13-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 94¢ today.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 94¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+13.45 in 2024.Polling · Lean DD+5 — Harper Polling, Jul 22.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 5¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 94¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+5

Harper Polling ↗ B+ Jul 18 - 21 · n=415 LV D+5 R SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+13.45

Angie Craig (D)

55.53 — 42.08 · 2024 general election

def. Joe Teirab (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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No comparable filings from both major-party nominees.