Virginia 5th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 15-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 82¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upR+3 — Expedition Strategies, Aug 18.Market · Likely RR 82¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+14.99 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 82¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+3

Expedition Strategies ↗ Aug 14 - 17 · n=1,450 RV R+3 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+14.99

John J. McGuire III (R)

57.26 — 42.27 · 2024 general election

def. Gloria Tinsley Witt (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.2 to 1

Tom Perriello$2.14M

John J. McGuire III$1.78M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.