FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 2 points in 2022 is now priced dead even.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Toss-upD 52¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upR+0.9 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 26).Prior result · Toss-upR+1.51 in 2022.MarketD 52¢PollsR+0.92022 resultR+1.5
MarketD 52¢PollsR+0.92022R+1.5
Market favors Ford, but polls favor Lombardo.
The market moved 4¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 4.2 points toward the Republican over 18 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Tarrance Group ↗BJul 25 to 29 · n=555 LVR+7Better Nevada PAC sponsorR+7 · Better Nevada PAC sponsor · counts as R+5 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 10
POS ↗AJul 27 to 29 · n=600 LVR+9Better Nevada PAC sponsorR+9 · Better Nevada PAC sponsor · counts as R+7 at half weight
Grassroots Tar. ↗Jul 8 to 16 · n=2,500 LVR+12Better Nevada PAC sponsorR+12 · Better Nevada PAC sponsor · counts as R+10 at half weight
PPP ↗BJul 15 to 16 · n=558 LVEVENDemocratic Governors Association sponsorEVEN · Democratic Governors Association sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight