Nevada Governor — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market and the latest general-election poll carry this seat — Nevada has no verified prior result on file.

Toss-up

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Toss-upR 61¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Polling · Lean RR+7 — Tarrance Group, Aug 5.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 5¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 9 points toward the Republican over 22 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 61¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+7

Tarrance Group ↗ B Jul 25 - 29, 26 · n=555 LV R+7 R SPONSOR

POS ↗ A Jul 27 - 29, 26 · n=600 LV R+9 R SPONSOR

Grassroots Tar. ↗ Jul 8 - 16, 26 · n=2,500 LV R+12 R SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

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No verified prior result

The last general election in this seat has not been imported from an official state canvass, so the signal has no baseline.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Aaron D. Ford$2.63M

Joe Lombardo$9.20M

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 06-30 · STATE FILING

Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.