Elections Intelligence

Lisa Demuth

MNGovernor: G under a starred pediment
CHALLENGER Likely D Underdog
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What the Signal reads

Likely D

Demuth is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Demuth at 5.4¢ against Klobuchar's 94.9¢, down 0.4¢ since July 31. The polling average has Klobuchar ahead by 6 points, and Klobuchar leads 4.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Demuth · Republican contract
5.4¢
▼ 0.4¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Lisa Demuth by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 7.2¢ · low 5¢Oct 12
Lisa DemuthRepublican
5.4¢
Amy KlobucharDemocratic
94.9¢

483,199 traded · 305,363 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Demuth v Klobuchar

Metric by metric
Demuth
Klobuchar
5.4¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
94.9¢
$3.10M
RaisedState filings, through September 15
$13.33M
$618.1K
Cash on handState filings, through September 15
$3.52M
39%
Latest pollMorning Consult · Oct 7
48%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Senatorsince 2007

The 2026 race

Minnesota Governor
Polling average
D+6

Average of 3 pollsters, September 14 to October 7.

Prior result
D+7.7

2022 general election, won by Tim Walz.

Fundraising
4.3 to 1

Raised, through September 15.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.