Elections Intelligence

Aaron Bean

FL-4U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Likely R Likely to win
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Bean is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Bean at 87¢ against Holloway's 14¢, up 3¢ since August 3. Bean leads 79.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Bean · Republican contract
87.0¢
▲ 3.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Aaron Bean by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 90¢ · low 84¢Oct 12
Aaron BeanRepublican · incumbent
87.0¢
LaShonda "L.J." HollowayDemocratic
14.0¢

9,843 traded · 3,397 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Bean v Holloway

Metric by metric
Bean
Holloway
87.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
14.0¢
$2.16M
RaisedFEC, through July 29
$27.3K
$1.63M
Cash on handFEC, through July 29
$23.6K
U.S. Representativesince 2023
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Florida 4th District
Prior result
R+14.5

2024 general election, won by Aaron Bean.

Fundraising
79.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.